Playing the situation out, it becomes apparent how eliminating Saddam is just one part of the Bush administration’s long-term strategy for fighting the war against terrorism.

If the Americans occupy Iraq, they will undoubtedly control how much oil Iraq produces. As a result of the United Nations sanctions, Iraq today pumps around two-thirds of its pre-Gulf War capacity of 3 million barrels per day (MBPD). The U.S. control of Iraq’s current potential production, which is roughly 11 percent of OPEC’s current production of 27.5 MBPD, will deny OPEC and the Saudi leaders the ability to dictate marginal changes in world oil supply. Developing Iraq’s vast potential in the medium term can only increase the American leverage over world oil prices.

So here is the link: Islamist terrorism is financed and spread by revenue earned from petroleum exports. So the Bush strategy is to control Iraq, break OPEC’s stranglehold on oil markets, force oil prices down, and thus deny Islamist terrorism access to petroleum financing. The Bush administration is not just going after Saddam and his weapons of mass destruction. It is going after OPEC and the global financial infrastructure that supports terrorism.

So what happens after the United States occupies Iraq? It is not so much what may happen as much as what surrounding countries such as Iran and Syria think could happen. The two countries, high on the State Department’s list of supporters of terrorism, would have just seen the United States whip the meanest thug in the neighborhood. Bush rattled Iran with his “axis of evil” comment, and Iranian strategists already talk of “feeling encircled” by American troops in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a Russia that is no longer a reliable ally. The presence of thousands of American troops in Iraq would only heighten Iranian anxiety about what Bush could do—say, destabilize the Iranian government or even invade outright. Just being the 800-pound gorilla next door could be enough to force the changes he wants.

Such moves have the power to significantly alter the balance of power in West Asia. And in the long run, permanent guarantees of cheap oil will put the world economy on a sound footing. But such one-dimensional military planning presents a host of problems. First, if Saddam Hussein feared that he actually would be killed, he might use weapons of mass destruction (assuming he could) as a last-ditch effort—an absolutely terrifying thought, which should give everyone a pause.